We are all waiting for the Census numbers. According to the official schedule we will not know the official number of US Hispanics until April of 2011. Nevertheless I took the time to look at some sources of data to figure out what the growth of US Latinos is likely to be in the next few years.
First I consulted the Geoscape projections for all the US population and Hispanics in 2015. These projections are based on Census data. The projection is that the total population of the US will be close to 323 million people and that of US Hispanics will of about 56 million people then. Well, I was expecting something like that. Then I looked at the Geoscape total population projection for 2010, which I found to be very close to the current count of the US population according to the http://www.census.gov population clock. Both sources said that there are about 310 million people in the US now. I looked at the latest Census data again and found that the US Census Bureau projection for Hispanics in 2009 was 48.4 million. Geoscape projection for 2010 is of close to 50 million people.
I started doing some simple arithmetic and rounded up numbers for simplicity. Let's assume there are 50 million Hispanics in the US now, and there will be 56 million in 2015. The difference is 6 million. Then I substracted 310 million from 323 million for the entire population in 2015. That means that the total projected growth of the US population by 2015 will of about 13 million. If these numbers are anywhere close to accurate, the growth of the US Hispanic population will account for almost half of the total growth of the population of the United States.
These numbers left me thinking about how important Hispanics are to US marketers. A cultural group that accounts for half the growth of the population should make an important part of strategic planning. This is a cultural group that can be addressed by connecting via common denominators in a common culture. Numbers can have some interesting implications.
